CCAMLR

Japan is trying to use information obtained through the fishery effectively, and planning an acoustic survey using a commercial krill fishing vessel that enables annual data collection. This proposal focuses on monitoring yearly trend of krill distribution and fishing ground formation. The goal of this survey is to obtain scientific information by fishing vessel on a regular basis.

A recent gap analysis of knowledge of the breeding distribution of the Adélie penguin across the Australian Antarctic Territory in east Antarctica found that approximately half of the species’ potential breeding habitat had no evidence of ever being searched. With such incomplete knowledge of the current breeding distribution, it is not possible to reliably assess possible future change in breeding distribution due to broad-scale environmental change, or to reliably estimate the current size of breeding populations. This paper describes a comprehensive, large-scale survey of the current breeding distribution of Adélie penguins along 3000 km of the east Antarctic coastline. The survey found 44 unreported breeding sites, increasing the number of known breeding sites in the survey region by 42% from 104 to 148.

Phenological changes are touted to be an early indication of species response to environmental change and have been reported for a range of species around the globe. In Antarctica, there is a clear indication of phenological changes for the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) with contrasting trends in clutch initiation dates reported for populations on opposite sides of Antarctica. Such shifts in breeding phenology can be indicative of environmental change when cues for breeding initiation are tightly linked with environmental conditions or may reflect other underlying causes such as changes in a species food supply. Here we outline the underlying factors which can affect the timing of various phenophases of the breeding cycle and describe shifts in Adélie penguin breeding phenology reported at different locations around the Antarctic continent.

Understanding circumpolar penguin abundance is critical for developing realistic ecosystem models that might be used to inform the management of impacts due to climate change or fisheries. A review of historical Adélie penguin survey data in east Antarctica revealed Prydz Bay as a priority region for new survey work to improve population estimates. Prydz Bay is considered to have the largest breeding population of Adélie penguins in east Antarctica but the most recent abundance survey was conducted 30 years ago. To understand current levels of prey consumption in east Antarctica it is therefore critical to understand if population numbers in Prydz Bay have changed in the past three decades. Accordingly, an aerial photography survey was undertaken in 2009/10. The survey used sample counts to estimate abundance for two sub-regions, comparative air and ground counts to assess detectability of penguins from the air, and data obtained from cameras to adjust counts to a point in the breeding chronology consistent with CEMP Standard Method A3. Recent abundance estimates are approximately double those obtained in the early 1980s. The new abundance estimates will significantly improve estimates of prey consumption by Adélie penguins in this region.

Application of new methods for estimating the abundance of breeding Adélie penguin populations along the Kemp and Mac.Robertson Land coasts of east Antarctica are described. Methods include use of sample survey designs, distance sampling to estimate detectability, virtual delineation of sample plot boundaries, cameras to collect adjustment data and adjustment of counts for detectability and availability using ICESCAPE software. The surveys revealed a considerably larger population of Adélie penguins breeding in this region than was previously known. The larger population estimates are at least partly due to surveying previously unsearched or undocumented areas, but are also likely be due to real increases in the populations since previous surveys were conducted in the 1980s.

This paper summarises inter-sessional work by WG-EMM-STAPP between 2009 and 2011 aimed at estimating krill consumption by pack ice seals, fur seals, penguins and flying seabirds in small scale management units (SSMUs) in Area 48 and in other CCAMLR Areas, and outlines a plausible timeframe for remaining tasks. Substantial progress has been made in estimating predator population sizes, reviewing diet and developing energetics models. The major task now requiring attention for estimation of krill consumption for SSMUs is the development of foraging distribution models for fur seals and penguins, and at-sea abundance distribution models for flying seabirds, to partition at-sea consumption by the estimated populations into SSMUs.

This paper describes the general operation pattern of F/V Fukuei-Maru to help understand the actual condition of fishing and processing Antarctic krill in Japanese commercial trawl fishery. Special attention is paid to the calculation of green weight and conversion factors.

The spatial-temporal dynamics of standardized abundance indices of krill in Area 48 based on the CCAMLR catch statistics was analyzed using GLMM with Tweedie’s distribution.In the yesteryear the authors revealed “diagnostics specificity” of GLMM tuning for CPUE standardization: many hauls to be interpreted as “outliers”, i.e. the hauls where residuals significantly deviated from the normal distribution. In this study the approaches to improve the diagnostics of GLLM tuning by using aggregated haul-by-haul data are shown. The trends of CPUE spatial-temporal variability and the factors contributing this variability at different degree of aggregated fishery statistics have been presented. In additional the long-term patterns of krill fishery in the Subareas 48.1-48.3 were studied taking in account the spatial correlation and applying the Principle-Component Analysis.

Due to the need to distribute the krill catch limit in Statistical Area 48 so as to ensure that land-based predators are not affected by fishing activity, the Commission has adopted the interim Conservation Measure 51-07 (2009) since management advice on a SSMU krill catch limit allocation subdivision in Area 48 has not been agreed yet. CM 51-07 (2009) will expire in 2011 and still more scientific information is needed on krill distribution, abundance and variability, and on land-based predator demands to create comprehensive models that would allow providing management advice for SSMU allocation, therefore it is proposing to keep conditions of CM51-07 (2009) in force for two more fishing seasons.

Acoustically based estimates of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) biomass, and net-based estimates of krill density and recruitment are recalculated for the years 1996 through 2011. Recent changes in the acoustic methodology and target strength models are the basis for the recalculation. The time series of acoustic biomass indicate that krill have varied by more than an order of magnitude over this time period. Current estimates for the South Shetland Islands region are 3.6, 1.9 and 1.35 million tons for the Elephant Island, West and South Areas, during leg 1. Recruitment estimated from net based data show that 2011 was a year of good recruitment, following two years of low recruitment. Krill biomass in the northern Gerlache Strait, an area of just over 1100 km2, exceeded 110 g m-2 which results in a biomass of more than 128 000 tons. Refining biomass estimates and estimates of recruitment will help to better inform CCAMLR about the status and trends of krill in Area 48.1 an area experiencing the most rapid climate change as well as population declines of major land-based predators.