Exploratory fishing for toothfish (Dissostichus spp.) in East Antarctica (Divisions 58.4.1 and 58.4.2) began in 2003. Robust stock assessments and catch limits according to CCAMLR decision rules remain to be determined for these Divisions. WG-FSA-16/29 outlined the first multi-member toothfish exploratory fishery research plan up to 2017/18 for East Antarctica, which the Scientific Committee agreed was appropriate to achieve the research objectives (SC-CAMLR-XXXV, para. 3.244). Subsequent research progress including evaluation of standard approaches to identify precautionary catch limits (WG-FSA-17 para. 4.28-4.38) and bycatch mitigation (Maschette et al. 2017), suggests a low risk profile for this fishery. Furthermore, examination of bycatch data and underwater video footage have not led to the identification of vulnerable marine ecosystem (VME) indicator species (Maschette et al. 2017). Final milestone results for the current research plan will be presented to WG-FSA-18. Here, we present a succeeding research proposal for 2018/19 to 2021/22, in accordance with ANNEX 24-01/A, Format 2. This succeeding plan has been designed as a 4-year plan, based on the low risk profile of this fishery and to allow more time for review by Working Groups of major reporting and review years in non-stock-assessment years. In this document we propose draft research objectives and an approach to review the locations of research blocks based on WG-SAM-11 para. 2.40. Based on WG-SAM-18 discussions and final milestone results for the current research plan, we will further develop the objectives and the locations of research blocks of this research plan for WG-FSA-18. In addition, the current genetics work (Maschette et al. 2018) will provide information on the stock structure of Antarctic toothfish in East Antarctica in relation to the wider Southern Ocean, and whether the species is suitable for an abundance estimate using a close-kin mark-recapture method.

This report presents activities and preliminary results from a krill and ecosystem monitoring survey conducted in February 2018 at the South Orkney Islands.

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥ 40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.