CCAMLR

To investigate spatio-temporal variability of krill body length and number of bycatch fish, observer data sets on Japanese krill fishery from 1995 to 2008 were analyzed by using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The model was composed of multistage cluster units (i.e., years, subarea, vessels, and haul) based on a state-space model, which can separate biological process error in the population dynamics from observation error caused by the fishery activity and individual observation. In both krill length and bycatch fish number, the parameters estimated by MCMC showed the variation among years, subareas, and vessels. The potent interaction effect between year and subarea suggests large spatiotemporal variability of krill population structure and a difficulty in predicting krill population dynamics. Variances of krill length and bycatch fish number by sampling stages were calculated by the multistage sampling formula with the variance terms derived from the Bayesian model. For both krill length and bycatch fish number, haul coverage ranging 0–50% showed marked effects on CV, although vessel coverage hardly changed CV. The results of this study suggest that scientific data collectionby commercial fishery is an important source of information for the management of krill resources and Antarctic ecosystem, while enlarging haul coverage > 50% have smaller effects in improving data accuracy and may not balance the rising cost of observer program.

At WG-EMM-09 the Working Group noted that the photographic method used in WG-EMM-09/38 could be incorporated as a modification of CEMP Standard Method A3 (penguin breeding population size). This paper reviews aspects of Methods A3a, A3b and related A9 (breeding chronology) in the most recent version of the CEMP Standard Methods that are relevant to this proposal, outlines some difficulties in the practical application of these Methods, and proposes some general modifications to the Methods to allow greater flexibility in the collection and interpretation of penguin breeding population counts.

Cameras and other optical instruments are increasingly being used as cheap, convenient and reliable tools for surveillance and monitoring. This paper describes (1) the kinds of observations and measurements relevant to CEMP that can be obtained from an automated camera system specifically developed for use in the extreme conditions of Antarctica, (2) a preliminary assessment of the utility of cameras for measuring Adélie penguin breeding success, and (3) how cameras are currently being used to expand the spatial extent of Adélie penguin monitoring, and to extend monitoring to additional land-based breeding species, in east Antarctica.

We made a survey plan to observe krill escapement, attached an underwater video camera on a trawl net of a Japanese commercial trawler, and started observation to collect video images of krill passage through the rope and netting parts of the trawl net. Preliminary examination of video images obtained via satellite-linked transmission indicated very low incidence of krill escapement from top panels near the net opening.

Japan is trying to use information obtained through the fishery effectively, and planning an acoustic survey using a commercial krill fishing vessel that enables annual data collection. This proposal focuses on monitoring yearly trend of krill distribution and fishing ground formation. The goal of this survey is to obtain scientific information by fishing vessel on a regular basis.

A recent gap analysis of knowledge of the breeding distribution of the Adélie penguin across the Australian Antarctic Territory in east Antarctica found that approximately half of the species’ potential breeding habitat had no evidence of ever being searched. With such incomplete knowledge of the current breeding distribution, it is not possible to reliably assess possible future change in breeding distribution due to broad-scale environmental change, or to reliably estimate the current size of breeding populations. This paper describes a comprehensive, large-scale survey of the current breeding distribution of Adélie penguins along 3000 km of the east Antarctic coastline. The survey found 44 unreported breeding sites, increasing the number of known breeding sites in the survey region by 42% from 104 to 148.

Phenological changes are touted to be an early indication of species response to environmental change and have been reported for a range of species around the globe. In Antarctica, there is a clear indication of phenological changes for the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) with contrasting trends in clutch initiation dates reported for populations on opposite sides of Antarctica. Such shifts in breeding phenology can be indicative of environmental change when cues for breeding initiation are tightly linked with environmental conditions or may reflect other underlying causes such as changes in a species food supply. Here we outline the underlying factors which can affect the timing of various phenophases of the breeding cycle and describe shifts in Adélie penguin breeding phenology reported at different locations around the Antarctic continent.

Understanding circumpolar penguin abundance is critical for developing realistic ecosystem models that might be used to inform the management of impacts due to climate change or fisheries. A review of historical Adélie penguin survey data in east Antarctica revealed Prydz Bay as a priority region for new survey work to improve population estimates. Prydz Bay is considered to have the largest breeding population of Adélie penguins in east Antarctica but the most recent abundance survey was conducted 30 years ago. To understand current levels of prey consumption in east Antarctica it is therefore critical to understand if population numbers in Prydz Bay have changed in the past three decades. Accordingly, an aerial photography survey was undertaken in 2009/10. The survey used sample counts to estimate abundance for two sub-regions, comparative air and ground counts to assess detectability of penguins from the air, and data obtained from cameras to adjust counts to a point in the breeding chronology consistent with CEMP Standard Method A3. Recent abundance estimates are approximately double those obtained in the early 1980s. The new abundance estimates will significantly improve estimates of prey consumption by Adélie penguins in this region.

Application of new methods for estimating the abundance of breeding Adélie penguin populations along the Kemp and Mac.Robertson Land coasts of east Antarctica are described. Methods include use of sample survey designs, distance sampling to estimate detectability, virtual delineation of sample plot boundaries, cameras to collect adjustment data and adjustment of counts for detectability and availability using ICESCAPE software. The surveys revealed a considerably larger population of Adélie penguins breeding in this region than was previously known. The larger population estimates are at least partly due to surveying previously unsearched or undocumented areas, but are also likely be due to real increases in the populations since previous surveys were conducted in the 1980s.

This paper summarises inter-sessional work by WG-EMM-STAPP between 2009 and 2011 aimed at estimating krill consumption by pack ice seals, fur seals, penguins and flying seabirds in small scale management units (SSMUs) in Area 48 and in other CCAMLR Areas, and outlines a plausible timeframe for remaining tasks. Substantial progress has been made in estimating predator population sizes, reviewing diet and developing energetics models. The major task now requiring attention for estimation of krill consumption for SSMUs is the development of foraging distribution models for fur seals and penguins, and at-sea abundance distribution models for flying seabirds, to partition at-sea consumption by the estimated populations into SSMUs.