The western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is warming rapidly and we need to understand the impact of these physical changes on the marine ecosystem. The WAP is surrounded by a complex marine food web involving a number of predator and prey populations, and empirical data on abundance and trends is required to understand these trophic dynamics. The apex predator inWAP coastal waters is the killer whale (Orcinus orca), represented in this area by three phenotypically, genetically and culturally distinct ecotypes (Types B1, B2 and A). Here we report on the movement patterns and abundance of both forms of Type B killer whales: a larger mammal-eating form (B1) that apparently specializes on hunting ice seals on pack ice floes, and a smaller, more gregarious form (B2) that has been observed to feed on pygoscelid penguins. We integrated satellite telemetry to describe movement (B1: n = 8 tags, median duration = 20 d; B2: n = 22 tags, median duration = 66 d) and photo-identifications (6 y; B1 = 8,925 photographs, B2 = 13,621 photographs) to estimate abundance in the coastal waters of the WAP during austral summers from 2008/09 to 2013/14. Both forms typically occurred close to the WAP coastline in the austral summer, with periodic long-distance migrations to sub-tropical waters (up to 4151 km from tagging site) for hypothesized physiological maintenance migrations. Both types were mostly sympatric in their distributions, but B1s typically occurred further south (extending as far as 69⁰S), whereas all tracks and encounters of B2s occurred north of 68⁰S. There were notable hot spots for B1 killer whales between Adelaide Island and the WAP mainland, and for B2s in the Gerlache Strait between the WAP and Anvers Island; both types were regularly encountered in the Weddell Sea around the northern end of the WAP. B1 killer whales had a higher re-identification rate (61% photographed in more than one year) within a highly connected social network compared to B2s (25% re-identification rate). A mark-recapture model allowing for temporary emigration from the study area indicated that B1s were stable in abundance, ranging from 39 to 53 whales using the study area per year from a small parent population averaging 50 whales (75% Probability Interval 46-57). In contrast, there was a high probability (p=1) that B2s were increasing in abundance with annual estimates ranging from 181-299, from a larger parent population averaging 502 (75% PI = 434-662).

Experience gained through participation in international programmes like BIOMASS and the CCAMLR 2000 Survey has demonstrated that standardization of equipment and methods is one of the most crucial steps for any successful work during the field sampling period and later analytical work. The following net sampling and laboratory protocols are based on the protocols developed for the CCAMLR 2000 Survey. The aim is to facilitate a joint understanding of the field and laboratory work in order for participants that carry out the upcoming International Krill Synoptic Survey 2019 to collect comparable and high-quality data. This will hopefully enable the establishment of a uniform and valuable database of comparable quality with data obtained through the CCAMLR 2000 Survey and other more recent surveys that have been conducted within the region of CCAMLR Area 48.

Science based management of krill suffers from limitation of time-space information in distribution dynamics. Similarly, the industry burns unnecessary amounts of oil in long range searching of fishable biomass due to lack of density distribution information. In this paper, we demonstrate that new drone technology now available through the Sailbuoy concept, offers new opportunity for an industry – science partnership in collecting environment and krill distribution data independent of vessel availability. 

The Sailbuoy concept has demonstrated robustness and reliability under other rough conditions and will be tailored to support data for Feedback management and for a more environmentally efficient fishery in the Antarctic. The system will be equipped with echosounder and environmental sensors and will survey krill hotspots (in areas that are fished and unfished) and feed science and industry with data in near real time. The system may also collect data from moorings through underwater communication using an acoustic modem. We plan the first test in 2019 and it is the goal of this paper to establish a productive interaction with potential users to ensure that the tailored system includes most of the users’ requirement.

A Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) is a quantitative assessment of the status and trends of habitats, species and food webs in different regions.  It aims to provide a common foundation for all end-users on which science can be developed, and policies and decisions can be made.  It is intended to enable managers to achieve consensus in adapting their management strategies to ecosystem change, in order to continue to achieve their objectives for ecosystems. ​ This paper briefly describes MEASO activities during 2018.  

This paper reports on available CEMP data and details of use as a guide for CEMP-related analyses, including an update on CEMP metadata available on the CCAMLR GIS and as hosted on the NASA Global Change Master Directory (GCMD). CEMP data submissions for the 2017/18 season are detailed by site and species, and a brief overview on general trends from the past three seasons by Subarea or Division has been included.

The Combined Standardised Index (CSI) analysis has been updated from 2017 for Area 48 in order to compare patterns of inter-annual variability. Spatial analysis shows evidence of concordance of response to changes in the ecosystem between sites by Subarea, suggesting CEMP data are tracking similar processes. Further analysis to understand emerging trends and specific indices driving these patterns are required.

• The Antarctic region is characterized by complex interaction of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change that produce high levels of variability in both physical and biological systems, including impacts on key fishery taxa such as Antarctic krill.

• The impact of anthropogenic climate change in the short-term could be expected to be related to changes in sea ice and physical access to fishing grounds, whereas longer-term implications are likely to include changes in ecosystem productivity affecting target stocks.

• There are no resident human populations or fishery-dependent livelihoods in the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) Area, therefore climate change will have limited direct implications for regional food security. However, as an “under-exploited” fishery, there is potential for krill to play a role in global food security in the longer term.

•The institutional and management approach taken by CCAMLR, including the ecosystem-based approach, the establishment of large marine protected areas, and scientific monitoring programmes, provides measures of resilience to climate change.

The abundance of the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has been declining in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), probably as a consequence of the effects of the considerable increase in the sea surface temperature observed in the region. Thus, the performance (reproduction and survival) of the krill consumers may be compromised. In the present study, we investigated the reproductive success of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) from Breeding Stock G in relation to krill density.  The result we found suggests that the warming off the WAP and the expected future increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events may compromise humpback whale’s rate of recovery in the Southern Hemisphere if such changes negatively affect the production of krill. Therefore, it is recommended that management strategies for krill fisheries consider the effect of climate on the whole Antarctic ecosystem and the potential effect of krill removal on the population recovery of whales.

Climate change will alter the structure and functioning of Southern Ocean ecosystems and affect the ecosystem services they provide. The impacts of climate change will require development of conservation and management strategies that anticipate and adapt to potential changes in krill population dynamics. A recent collaborative workshop between the Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics in the Southern Ocean (ICED) programme and CCAMLR brought together a range of ecologists, physical and ecological modellers and fisheries scientists to consider the development of projections of the impacts of climate change upon krill in Area 48. Here we present the preliminary findings of this workshop: ‘Developing projections of the future state of Southern Ocean ecosystems: Incorporating uncertainties associated with climate variability and change in CCAMLR’s decision making’ held at CCAMLR Headquarters, 5-7 April 2018. The Workshop highlighted the high level of natural spatial and temporal variability of the ecosystem in Area 48. The current suite of scenarios of future changes in physical, chemical and ecological drivers across the region are highly uncertain and global climate models do not resolve ocean and sea-ice processes that are important within Area 48. As a result of that uncertainty, signals of projected changes in SST and sea-ice are not distinguishable from model variability before ~2050. Surface waters are expected to warm and sea ice concentrations reduce, but the position of the polar front is not expected to change during this century. The changes expected by the end of the century are likely to cause distribution shifts and reconfiguration of food webs, with both positive and negative effects. The Workshop highlighted our poor understanding of krill recruitment processes, the key driver of variability in krill populations across the region, and particularly their links to sea ice. It also emphasized the need for a systematic development of krill population models and high spatial resolution ecosystem models. The Workshop noted the importance of developing a joint approach between ICED and CCAMLR to improve scenarios and ecosystem models and develop quantified model projections of ecosystem change in support of decision making for conservation and management. A final version of the report and agreed statements will be submitted as a Working Paper for consideration at SC-CAMLR-XXXVII.

The previously presented document at the 2018 ASAM WG meeting (ASAM-18-07) described a design and plans for a synoptic krill acoustic survey in CCAMLR area 48 in 2019. The survey involves the collaborative efforts of Norway, Association of Responsible Krill fishing companies (ARK: companies from Norway, Korea, China and Chile), the United Kingdom, Ukraine, Korea and China, all of whom have confirmed a commitment of survey ship time. With these commitments it is feasible to implement all transects occupied during the 2000 survey. This document is a draft survey manual, produced at the recommendation of the 2018 ASAM meeting, and describes acoustic procedures, acoustic reporting - analysis procedures and contingency plans.

The estimates of fur seal consumption of krill in subareas 48.1 to 48.3 which have been used in ecosystem modelling and CCAMLR’s risk assessment approach, are based on the distribution of fur seal breeding populations. Fur seal breeding colonies south of 60^o have remained relatively small and their biomass is orders of magnitude less than those of penguins. As a result the estimates of fur seal consumption outside of the South Georgia region, where ~95% of the population breeds, are relatively insignificant. However evidence from the growing body of tracking data has revealed the importance of the South Orkneys and Peninsula regions to male fur seals during their post mating dispersal from breeding sites on South Georgia. Using a combination of published and BAS data we highlight the potential importance of this connectivity. Our estimates suggest that the influx of fur seal males from South Georgia has a significant impact on the marine environment around the South Orkney Islands with a potential total krill consumption of approximately 86,500 tonnes. This is very likely an underestimate as it is based on a census of the fur seal population at South Georgia from 1991 which represented a year of poor environmental conditions. This population has also undoubtedly grown since this count. Our estimates also do not account for the need of male fur seals to recover condition during this time after fasting during the mating season and a number of important data gaps exist. We recommend further detailed analysis is prioritised in order to provide more robust estimates of the fur seal impact on this region that can be used to inform management, including through the risk assessment framework.