CCAMLR

This paper follows preliminary work in 2005 in developing an integrated assessment for Patagonian toothfish in Division 58.5.2. It focuses on developing a “base-case” assessment, which is primarily based on the 2005 assessment implemented in the Generalised Yield Model (GYM) using survey data of the abundances of juvenile fish but adding fishery catch-at-length data, including a standardised catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) series. The base-case scenario was then extended to include estimates of IUU catch and mark-recapture data. Key sensitivity trials were also used to explore the tension between estimating natural mortality and selectivity for the different fisheries. The results of this work show that an integrated assessment for Dissostichus eleginoides in Division 58.5.2 seems tractable. The recruitment series derived from surveys has similarities with the recruitment series estimated by Welsford et al. (2006), but with a recognition that some age classes are only partially selected in these surveys. Although computer processing time is substantially increased, the inclusion of the catch-at-length and the mark-recapture data generally improves the confidence in the estimates of B0 and the recruitment series. Despite these results, there is considerable tension in the estimation model between natural mortality and fishing selectivities. The uncertainty arising from this tension will need to be explored further in order to appropriately accommodate this uncertainty in the estimate of long-term annual yield. Further discussion is needed on the choices being made in how the datasets are used in this assessment and the approaches being used to estimate the key parameters. An important stage in the development of this assessment will be to evaluate the robustness of these assessments to the uncertainties identified here as well as uncertainties in the spatial dynamics of the stock and the fisheries.

During the year 2005 meeting of the WG-FSA two different methods for assessing Patagonian toothfish stock in CCAMLR Subarea 48.3 were available to the Working Group: CASAL and ASPM (WG-FSA-05/16; WG-FSA-05/73). Although the underlying basic age-structure population dynamics models in both cases were similar, there were considerable differences in assumptions and implementations of the two methods. In this paper, we discuss the related effects considering constant h parameter and deterministic recruitment over time vs. considering a fitted h parameter and variable recruitment. The first alternative produces a more stable population structure and would introduce bias in the biomass and spawning stock biomass estimated. In the second case (variable recruitment and fitted h), the model have more flexibility to fit the changes in population structure and abundance. The parameter r from the stock recruitment relationship is also analyzed, in relation with the current underlying assumption of fish stock resilience.

Two Operating Models (OMs) reflecting an “Optimistic” and a “Pessimistic” current status for the toothfish resource in the Prince Edward Islands region that were developed last year are updated given further data. These models are for use for initial trials of candidate Management Procedures (MPs) which could provide future TAC recommendations for this resource. Deterministic projections under a constant future catch suggest that the two scenarios will only be qualitatively distinguished in the short-term by an increase in the mean length of longline-caught toothfish over the next five years for the “Pessimistic”, but not the “Optimistic” case. Accordingly the performance of a simple MP control rule based upon recent trends in both CPUE and this mean length is investigated. This MP is able to secure a faster increase in the TAC for the “Optimistic” case, and some recovery in abundance for the “Pessimistic” scenario, but neither is as appreciable as one might wish. Suggestions for future work are made.

This report outlines developments towards evaluating bias in abundance estimates for the current tagrecapture programme for Antarctic toothfish in the Ross Sea. We present an initial approach that uses the current data on catch (C2 data), tag-recovery effort and tag-release data from Dunn et al. (2005c), but ignores movements of tagged and untagged fish.

The results suggest that as the spatial pattern of tag releases and recovery effort has changed over the years that the tagging programme has operated, these patterns can introduce different levels of bias into the estimates of total population abundance.

A descriptive analysis of the toothfish tagging programme carried out in Subareas 88.1 and 88.2 since 2001 is presented. The paper updates tag-release and tag-recapture data for fish that were both released and recaptured from New Zealand vessels. It also presents release and recapture data for non- New Zealand vessels for the first time. However, tag data were only available for all of these vessels for 2005 and for about half of these vessels for 2004.

A reported total of 8888 Antarctic toothfish have been released and 176 recaptured, and 635 Patagonian toothfish released and 23 recaptured. Tagging rates by area over the past three years have been in the same proportion as the catch by area. However, recapture rates have tended to be higher in the northern and eastern SSRUs 88.1C and 88.2E. About 20% of the recaptures could not be matched to a release observation, mainly because of missing release data. It is recommended that all outstanding release and recapture data be provided to the Secretariat as soon as possible so that the analysis can be updated in time for the 2006 WG-FSA meeting.

Several large-scale movements have now been reported from the tagging data. Five fish tagged at McMurdo Sound have moved over 800 km, whilst a further four fish tagged in the fishery have moved over 300 km. However, the majority (>80%) Antarctic toothfish have moved less than 50 km. In 2006, New Zealand vessels greatly increased the size of toothfish being tagged so that for the first time the size distribution of the tagged fish was almost identical to the size composition of the catch.
 

This report updates the estimates of the biological parameters for Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea (Subareas 88.1 and SSRUs 88.2A–B). We present revised estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth curves, length weight relationship, and natural mortality based on CCAMLR observer data collected from commercial fishing operations in the Ross Sea. In addition, we review meta-data for plausible estimates of the steepness parameter of the stock-recruitment relationship and recruitment variability of Antarctic toothfish.

Length-at-age data for the Patagonian toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) caught by trawl in Heard Island fishery were fitted using a von Bertalanffy (VB) growth model taking into account variable probability (VP) sampling of fish that were aged. Sub-sampling of random length frequency (LF) data used to obtain the samples of fish for ageing used length-bin sampling involving a fixed sample size per bin. Estimation of the VB parameters used a definition of the maximum likelihood which took into account VP sampling due to length-dependent selectivity of trawl fishing and also accounted for the additional affect of length-bin sampling on sampling probabilities. Estimation of the trawl selectivity curve is described elsewhere and assumed known for this study with its most important feature being a sharp decline in selectivity from 100% at 1000 mm down to 1% by 1600 mm. The VB curve fitted to the length-at-age data assuming normal errors with constant coefficient of variation using iteratively weighted least squares (IWLS) substantially under-predicted mean length-at-age for older ages compared to VB curve fitted using the same error model and VP maximum likelihood (MLP) with length-bin relative probabilities defined using fishing selectivity alone. When length bin sampling frequencies for aged fish relative to those for the LF sample were also included in defining relative probabilities, the VP maximum likelihood (MLPLB) and IWLS estimated curves were more similar. Predicted and observed values of annual growth rate (AGR) for lengths measured at release and first recapture in mark-recapture studies were compared where predictions used the VB parameter estimates obtained from the length-at-age data and the Fabens form of the VB growth model. Formulae for adjusting predictions for bias imparted by the use of the Fabens model were developed based on assumptions about the distribution of age at first capture and showed that the bias is relatively small for the range of release lengths in the data. Predictions of AGR using the MLPLB estimated VB parameters were closer to the mean trend in observed values with release length than those obtained using IWLS estimated parameters. A young-age adjustment (less than 5 years old) to the VB model is also given in order to give more realistic predictions of mean length-at-age for young fish. 

This paper develops a Bayesian mark-recapture model for estimating both fishing and natural mortality, and integrates catch-at-age data into the estimation model, to aid in distinguishing between natural and fishing mortality. The model essentially follows tagged cohorts, with the estimated parameters being the  fishing and natural mortality vectors for that particular cohort.

The model was tested against simulated data, and performed as expected. Mark-recapture data from toothfish at South Georgia was analysed with the model. The ages covered by the analysed cohorts ranged from 5 to 13. In the model runs, while fishing mortality-at-age was estimated, only one value of the natural mortality was permitted, as allowing both to vary can produce either non-sensical or nonconvergent results. For all the cohorts the model was applied to, a consistent picture emerged. Both natural and fishing mortality were estimated to be lower than those estimated in previous stock assessments using both mark-recapture and catch data. There was additionally some suggestion of agestructure in the natural mortality-at-age.

Trawl surveys are used in CCAMLR waters to estimate abundance of juvenile toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) and icefish (Champsocephalus gunnari). Documentation of some past trawl surveys has been insufficient to allow members of WG-FSA to fully interpret the survey results. This document suggests a standard pro-forma for reporting trawl survey results to WG-FSA based on survey reports for bottom-trawl surveys for hoki (Macruronus novaezelandiae) in the New Zealand EEZ.