Between 2001 and 2013 the number of breeding pairs of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) at breeding colonies in the southern Ross Sea more than doubled from about 235 000 to more than half a million. It has been suggested that predation release of Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica) due to fishing of one of its predators, Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), could have contributed to the increase in Adélie penguin numbers. This paper brings together information on the biomass, consumption rates and diets of toothfish and Adélie penguins over the Ross Sea shelf as a first test of the predation release hypothesis. In particular, the examination of 422 Antarctic toothfish stomachs showed that they consume only a small proportion of silverfish (1.9–5.1% by mass) over the southern Ross Sea shelf. These Antarctic toothfish were sampled over three years, between 2011/12 and 2013/14. The mass of silverfish estimated as being released from predation by fishing (577 tWW/y) was equivalent to about 2% of the amount of silverfish consumed annually by Adélie penguins in this region. This result was inconsistent with predation release of silverfish due to the toothfish fishery being responsible for recent increases in the number of Adélie penguins breeding in the southern Ross Sea. Mixed trophic impact (MTI) analysis was used to look for alternative indirect pathways through the food-web by which changes to toothfish could affect Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea. The MTI analysis found only a weak link between changes in toothfish biomass and changes to the biomasses of silverfish and Adélie penguins. Essentially, Antarctic toothfish and Adélie penguins were not assessed as having overlapping diets over the Ross Sea shelf: Antarctic toothfish consume mainly small, bottom-dwelling fishes (especially icefish, and Trematomus spp.) while Adélie penguins consume crystal krill and silverfish in the water column. The large-scale trophic connection between toothfish and Adélie penguins over the Ross Sea shelf is hence weak. We encourage the development of further specific hypotheses of mechanisms by which fishing could affect Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea.

We present definitive evidence, derived from two independent methods (satellite tagging and photo-identification), that TCKW undergo long-distance travel from the southern Ross Sea to New Zealand waters and into subtropical regions (31°-35°S). This not only establishes ecosystem connectivity between the Ross Sea and New Zealand, but also emphasises the urgent need to re-evaluate the profile of potential threats faced by, and capacity for resilience in, this top predator. Together with Weddell seals, TCKW have been identified as one of the two top predator species in the Ross Sea most likely to be affected by the Ross Sea fishery for Antarctic toothfish, Dissostichus mawsoni, but critical knowledge gaps regarding abundance, diet, foraging habitat, and movement patterns limit our ability to assess or manage risk to TCKW.

New results from satellite transmitters deployed on TCKW in Terra Nova Bay suggest that TCKW may use small-scale areas in this highly productive ecosystem intensely for a period of days to weeks, but also undergo rapid long-distance travel along a northward transect towards New Zealand and the Kermadec Trench. Dive records from these tagged TCKW (n=4) indicate that whales perform deeper dives while in Terra Nova Bay (100-455 m) than on the northbound journey. A preliminary analysis of photo-ID data indicates that TCKW show a high degree of seasonal site fidelity, with whales inter-annually returning to areas of ecological significance, including New Zealand waters north and east of East Cape, the Kermadec Trench region, and highly productive Antarctic areas providing access to silverfish and toothfish (or other, yet unidentified prey resources).

The unexpectedly complex movement patterns and extremely broad spatial scale of movement exhibited by TCKW have important implications for our understanding of the ecology of this key Ross Sea predator, and for the precautionary spatial management of the Ross Sea regions, including monitoring of the existing ASPA #173 Silverfish Bay and the establishment and ongoing monitoring of the proposed Ross Sea Marine Protected Area.  These research priorities would be best addressed by multi-national collaborative efforts coordinated through the frameworks of IWC SORP and CCAMLR.

An integrated assessment model for Antarctic krill in FAO Subarea 48.1 that incorporates catch and length-composition data from the krill fishery with biomass indices and length-compositions from research surveys has been developed. The model uses statistical fits to these data to estimate the effects of the fishery on the krill population. The model estimates parameters representing krill population biology and the fishery during the period with data (1976 to 2014 in these models) and then applies these parameter values to future projections (2015-2034) at pre-specified levels of future catches. The model can compare predicted krill spawning biomass expected with projected future catches to the CCAMLR decision rules. An alternative pair of decision rules to those currently employed by CCAMLR are also applied to the projections. The alternative rules are based on comparing krill spawning biomass expected under projected future catch levels to spawning biomass expected without any fishing during the same future period. The CCAMLR rules are based on comparisons to estimated pre-exploitation spawning biomass instead of to projections with no fishing. Catch levels that meet the various decision criteria are identified and compared. Arbitrary time-series of future annual recruitments may be supplied to the model. Example estimates of spawning biomass for different future levels of catch, assuming recruitment in the future will be the same as recruitment estimated during the period for which survey and fishery data were available, are reported. The effects of using different data sources and weightings on the estimates of stock status during the estimation period are explored.

The importance of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in remote sensing is rapidly growing. However, knowledge about their potential impact on wildlife is scant, especially in the Antarctic, where they are a new tool used in ecological research and monitoring.   

In this preliminary study we investigate potential effects of wildlife disturbance by UAVs. In austral summer 2014-2015 UAV overflights were conducted, in the Adelié penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony at Pt. Thomas (Western Shore of Admiralty Bay, King George Island, Antarctic, subarea 48.1). The impact of electric and combustion engine UAV flying at the altitude of 300-350 m AGL (Above Ground Level) over the colony were compared to undisturbed colony, and to natural disturbance (skua Stercorarius sp. flying over nesting penguins). Penguin behavior was divided into: resting behavior, comfort behavior, vigilance/anxiety and aggression. Percentages of birds exhibiting different types of behavior, time spent on each type of behavior and number of different types of behavior displayed by one bird during the observation periods were compared. No differences were found between control and overflights by electric UAVs. During the overflight by UAV powered by combustion engine, symptoms of vigilance were noticed with penguins looking up and around for a few seconds when UAV was overhead. Similar symptoms of vigilance were observed when skua flew (aprox. 5 m AGL) over penguin colony without trying to attack nesting birds. No increase in aggressive behavior was observed during the overflights. Plans for a systematic monitoring of UAV impact on wildlife, as well as preliminary guidelines for the next field season were formulated.

Dynamic climate changes have become noticeable in recent decades, especially in the vulnerable region of Western Antarctic. The relatively simple food web of this area relies on krill - Euphausia superba. Presumably as a result of climatic fluctuations, a decrease in the numbers of this crustacean has been recorded, followed by an increase in the population of the gelatinous zooplankter Salpa thompsoni.

In the inquiry herein presented, population and morphometric analyses on Salpa thompsoni have been conducted. Specimens for this research were collected from the Drake Passage, using a Bongo net in the summer season of 2010.

It has been found that the horizontal distribution of this gelatinous zooplankter was significant irregular (Kruskal-Wallis test, p<0.001). In the northern part of the investigated area both blastozooids and oozooids were recorded, which confirms the dynamical performance of this species’ development. The central part of the Drake Passage was characterized by a dominance of blastozooids, with embryos found in different stages of development. Only in the region of South Shetland Island was the Salpidae population characterized by slowed, or even stopped reproduction.

The immense reproduction efficiency observed in the Salpa thompsoni population was mostly induced by beneficial thermal conditions. These observations may suggest that ongoing environmental changes in Western Antarctic will promote expansion of this species’ population.

An integrated, age-structured model was fitted to different combinations of survey data using two forms of selectivity (logistic or double-logistic) with time-constant or annually varying selectivity to investigate the population dynamics of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) near the Antarctic Peninsula. The data were from surveys conducted by the U.S. Antarctic Marine Living Resources Program around the South Shetland Islands from 1992 to 2011. Two indices of krill biomass based on (1) trawl-net samples and (2) hydroacoustic sampling were combined with length-compositions from the nets. Sixteen model configurations using different combinations of the two biomass surveys with the various options for modeling selectivities were examined. Parameters were estimated in phases with the sequential order of the phases randomized until an invertible Hessian matrix was obtained. Model consistency for the estimates of derived quantities was tested using simulated data. Annual trends in the estimates of total biomass, spawning biomass, and recruitment were similar among different configurations assuming time-constant selectivity, but the absolute scaling ranged widely depending on which biomass indices were used. All configurations with time-constant selectivities were able to reproduce the derived quantities of the operating model when fitted to simulated data. Annually varying selectivities produced more variable estimates of the trends in population biomass, but less variable estimates of scale, compared to time-constant configurations fitted to the same data. The models with annually varying selectivities did not produce invertible Hessian matrices, and four of these configurations could not reproduce the derived parameters of their operating model when fitted to simulated data. Using AIC, the model with logistic, time-constant selectivities was selected as the best configuration to fit both sources of biomass data. The two-stage approach of first randomizing the phase order until an invertible Hessian matrix is achieved and then verifying the reproducibility of the estimates of derived quantities using simulated data could be employed in any integrated stock assessment with parameters estimated in phases.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles specially adapted for operation in polar regions were used to study distribution and size of three Pygoscelis penguin species on King George Island (Subarea 48.1) in the austral summer 2014/15 season. During photogrammetric flights the high-resolution images of the penguin breeding colonies were taken. Obtained images were used for estimation of population size and compared with the results of measurements taken at the same time from the ground level. During expedition eight successful photogrammetry missions (total distance 1500 km) were performed. Images were taken with digital SLR Canon 700D, Nikon D5300, Nikon D5100 with a 35mm objective lens. Flights altitude at 350 – 400 AGL (Above Ground Level), allowed images to be taken with a resolution GSD (ground sample distance) less than 5 cm. Precision estimation of individuals count was based on the photo interpretation of images. The use of UAV for monitoring of indicator species, enabled data acquisition from areas inaccessible by ground methods.

Dynamic climate changes have become noticeable in recent decades, especially in the vulnerable region of Western Antarctic. It is widely assumed that Antarctic biota are sensitive to environmental changes. Admiralty Bay (King George Island, South Shetland Islands, Antarctic Peninsula) has been the site of comprehensive environmental studies over the last 30 years and existing data sets provide the opportunity for long-term comparisons, and recognition of any ecosystem changes, and potential predictions of future change. Comparison of the collected data with the archive data sets will allow us to estimate how climate warming and other anthropogenic impacts have affected the functioning of abiotic and biotic elements in Admiralty Bay.

In this paper we provide WG-EMM with an update on proposed project: "Admiralty Bay (South Shetland Islands) as a model area for the long-term marine monitoring program". This project will continue to develop over the coming years and results we will be presented and discussed within WG-EMM meetings.

During the Antarctic season 2014/2015 (39^th Polish Antarctic Expedition) marine monitoring program in the region of Admiralty Bay was started. Biological, chemical and geological samples were collected, and are currently subjected to laboratory analysis.   

Germany intends to present the Working Group on Ecosystem Monitoring and Management (WG EMM) the background document that provides the scientific basis for the evaluation of a marine protected area (MPA) in the Weddell Sea planning area. The contents and structure of the whole document reflect its main objectives, i.e. to set out the general context of the establishment of MPAs and to provide the background information on the Weddell Sea MPA (WSMPA) planning area (Part A); to inform on the data retrieval process (Part B), and to describe the results of the scientific analyses and the MPA scenario development with the directly science-based aspects of the WSMPA proposal, i.e. the objectives and the boundaries and zones of the MPA (Part C).

Here, the authors intend to update WG EMM on the current state of Part C of the scientific background document. Part C informs on the data analysis and the MPA scenario development that were carried out within the framework of the WSMPA project. Chapter 1 contains an update of the data analysis that has been presented in our background document SC-CAMLR-XXXIII/BG/02, and had welcomed and endorsed as a foundation reference document for the Weddell Sea MPA planning by the Scientific Committee (SC-CAMLR-XXXIII, § 5.21). Chapter 2 provides a systematic overview of the newly conducted MPA scenario development. The proposed objectives (subchapter 2.1), borders (2.4) and zoning related aspects (based on subchapter 2.5) are intended to be incorporated in the WSMPA proposal.

Quantifying the distribution and abundance of predators is integral to many ecological studies, but can be difficult in remote settings such as Antarctica. Recent advances in the development of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), particularly vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft, have provided a new tool for studying the distribution and abundance of predator populations. We detail our experience and testing in selecting a VTOL platform for use in remote, windy, perennially overcast settings, where acquiring cloud-free high-resolution satellite images is often impractical. We present results from the first use of VTOLs for estimating abundance, colony area, and density of krilldependent predators in Antarctica, based upon 65 missions flown in 2010/2011 (n = 28) and 2012/2013 (n = 37). We address concerns over UAS sound affecting wildlife by comparing VTOL-generated noise to ambient and penguin generated sound. We also report on the utility of VTOLs for missions other than abundance and distribution, namely to estimate size of individual leopard seals. Several characteristics of small, battery-powered VTOLs make them particularly useful in wildlife applications: (1) portability, (2) stability in flight, (3) limited launch area requirements, (4) safety, and (5) limited sound when compared to fixed-wing and internal combustion engine aircraft. We conclude that of the numerous UAS available, electric VTOLs are among the most promising for ecological applications.